Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 89863.706194 94770.171961 99670.809677 104929.502225 110409.165550 115947.306387 121964.099443
2024-12-29 82719.411789 90310.584088 98099.549386 106678.127739 115850.241273 125352.162229 135928.883447
2025-01-05 77234.363669 86670.907641 96560.902606 107676.866870 119800.035907 132597.961957 147106.756016
2025-01-12 72385.805322 83146.567077 94628.270307 107754.354151 122307.252425 137909.974985 155864.691243
2025-01-19 68240.221560 80018.693596 92786.165565 107600.478700 124261.162351 142363.556056 163462.536997
2025-01-26 66018.305802 78823.278306 92895.627242 109435.196828 128265.789347 148960.368519 173343.807529
2025-02-02 64098.077423 77808.547439 93066.642652 111210.504733 132097.866240 155289.070653 182880.552530
2025-02-09 61834.786411 76254.398542 92494.345183 112019.819267 134732.857464 160193.492303 190759.510890
2025-02-16 59264.824684 74209.283063 91235.241660 111923.443790 136229.329274 163724.264948 197015.433444
2025-02-23 57296.994091 72776.461599 90602.235202 112475.836725 138411.155286 167995.352195 204097.109311
2025-03-02 55240.774149 71145.111579 89651.719727 112576.743993 139999.199831 171530.627976 210296.060283
2025-03-09 54113.381676 70579.720040 89922.276615 114088.855319 143226.662604 176971.429169 218734.968497
2025-03-16 52021.462394 68787.738442 88685.007801 113774.863009 144284.262505 179888.970531 224267.664184
2025-03-23 51083.416608 68386.468903 89110.193082 115458.504915 147741.830153 185673.486629 233249.671609
2025-03-30 49879.280942 67602.089441 89023.435842 116482.156639 150378.592829 190472.638759 241070.993438
2025-04-06 48285.989922 66267.455867 88203.814763 116555.700710 151819.065398 193810.381996 247129.573381
2025-04-13 46671.620681 64849.712563 87229.500255 116389.799236 152926.565181 196719.309429 252658.799833
2025-04-20 46140.010942 64801.788728 87959.084412 118343.519654 156655.070035 202832.092591 262118.039054
2025-04-27 45614.642182 64736.593086 88647.721266 120233.921702 160304.300309 208861.645823 271509.181055
2025-05-04 44660.393563 64074.256882 88544.420883 121095.604967 162650.350517 213285.420965 278941.736676
2025-05-11 43332.332420 62875.555095 87713.263982 120992.989688 163753.922488 216155.642908 284452.849409
2025-05-18 42362.798295 62125.111731 87436.699775 121581.103248 165718.536975 220093.228518 291300.108143
2025-05-25 41236.960088 61130.051663 86810.088246 121688.531870 167049.547293 223228.449029 297149.763716